Predicting the Future

Did you know that you can predict the future? In this article I'm going to challenge you to predict the future by fully utilizing your existing mental capabilities.

Let’s start with an exercise. Wherever you are, whatever you are doing (presumably reading this article!), you can do this exercise - it will only take 30 seconds. Choose a small object nearby - something like a pen or a business card. Don’t make the item too large or heavy. In a moment I’m going to ask you to focus on the object and to concentrate on levitating the object about two inches above where it is sitting. Now before you think „what the heck is this about“ let me tell you that I’ve tried this experiment with many different groups of people and it has always worked.

The ACORN Test

Science has developed some powerful thinking tools which are in wide use in our society. Although the scientific method now seems obvious to us, and is taught to us at a young age, a technique such as logic is not really an inherently human characteristic - it is something we have learned.

As an example, I may observe a cyclist disobeying a traffic law - ignoring a red light. Then later I see a second and maybe a third cyclist do the same. By induction, I conclude that all cyclists are inconsiderate, irresponsible twits who ignore the rules of the road. Now here is the key piece. In science and technology if we create a rule like this one we keep on performing experiments to test the rule, keeping statistics on the observations. And good experimenters will look for data which proves an exception to the rule to find its limits.

The Optimum Experience Curve

In our society we place a high value on experience. We use sayings such as “experience is the best teacher.” There is a good reason for this: in general, the more experience we have at a task or in a job, the better our performance. It doesn't necessarily mean that with no experience we can't perform at all; we may have training or transferrable experience from other areas. But our word “expert” is related to experience for a reason.

For example, think back to when you learned to drive a car (or ride a bicycle.) At first, there were all sorts of things to watch - controlling the car, other cars on the road, traffic signals - all this even without distractions such as passengers or the radio. As you gained experience, your performance improved. Your driving became more natural, more automatic. You learned certain ways of doing things such that you didn't have to think about the details. To a large extent, you were training your automatic “information filters” or habits that are such a critical part of our thinking process..

Randy Park

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Predicting the Future

The ACORN Test

The Optimum Experience Curve

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